More on the downturn

Balbir Singh, on the other hand, is optimistic:

Looking at the stock market, this is the third slump I’ve seen and been bitten by, the other two were

  1. Harshad Mehta’s stock scam (I was very small/young then, but I understood what was going on)
  2. 2001 recession

History has taught me to be optimistic and know that we will come out of the bad times, the only thing to do is be patient, be positive and know that these things take a long time to recover, but they eventually do (or else we are doomed anyway, so what choice do I have, but to be optimistic :) ). Such times, test survival and like nature will choose the fittest to survive and learn from the mistakes of those who didn’t survive the recession.

So is Sagarone because ‘the Indian economy is not as export oriented as China’s or South Korea’s’:

The FIIs are withdrawing money from India because they need it to meet margin requirements back home. This demand for the USD has meant a weakening in the INR-USD exchange rate, which is actually good for the Indian economy. Because they are getting less and therefore are repatriating less bucks for their rupees.

Also, check the worst case scenario (depicting the collapse of the U.S. economy), as projected in a Martensen Report (featured in the same post):

Days 15-21:Over the next week, cash is demanded with increasing frequency, exacerbating the troubles of an already beleaguered banking system. A cash shortage rapidly develops, leading the Treasury Department to make a high profile show (on television, of course) of armored trucks pulling up to banks with large bags of cash. Assurances are made that everything is fine and that there is enough cash for everyone. Commentators on television make snide comments about the people lining up for cash, suggesting that they are over-reacting. But the Treasury is caught off guard, and even a 24/7 printing regimen cannot keep pace with cash withdrawals.

Linked by kuffir. Join Blogbharti facebook group.

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